It’s just broken…

Good morning all.  Or depending on your mood, maybe it’s just a morning.

From a footballing sense, the past weekend was no cause for great joy.  Leicester managed to grab a point, Tottenham destroyed the Stokies, and Arsenal managed to cede needless points yet again.  Despair is rampant through the fan base.  Worse even, apathy.

Yes, malaise, apathy, and a sense we have seen this all before.  The problem is, we haven’t seen this before.  Not from Arsenal under Arsene’ Wenger.

Arseblog writes today that this this the worst it has been under Wenger.  It is a team that seemingly does not not know what it is, or what it is supposed to be doing.  A team going through the motions, yet the motions are not even remotely familiar to the Arsenal of the recent past.

This is a team of players that is quite capable of winning the Crystal Palace game at home 1-0 if required.  Palace was going to sit back deep and let Arsenal have possession.  Arsenal was supposed to use the possession to slowly, and cautiously, unlock the defense and grab a goal or two.  All went according to plan in the first half, and it all went to shit with 10 minutes left.  Palace had no business getting a point from that game.  The real kicker is that it’s just another, in a long line of frustrating results.

But yet, if you are still reading, you must care enough to ask why?  The apathy may have not yet gotten to you, or maybe you are just a glutton for punishment.  The question is why?

Why is this group of players, this team, incapable of doing what it routinely has done in the past (often with less talent)?  It’s easy to blame the players.  It’s easy to blame the manager.  It’s easy to say the atmosphere at the Emirates has become dangerously toxic.  The truth is much more complicated.

Breaking it down bit by bit, let’s start with the players.  Are these players just not good enough?

As pointed out by Arseblog, Arsene Wenger spent money in 2013 and 2014.  He has brought new players in, let some players go, and in general had built a team he thought was ready to challenge for the title.  If you look at calendar year 2015 (January – December), you can see why he would think this way.  In 2015 Arsenal played a total of 53 matches of competitive football across 4 competitions.  They had the best Premier League form of any team in 2015, and in total, fashioned a record of 35 wins, 6 draws, 12 losses.  Arsenal won 66 % of their matches in 2015, and took points from 77%.  This team of players is more than capable of winning matches.  The players are good.  Some are great.

Well then, maybe it is down to injuries.  Injuries to key players have led to lineup shuffles, and no sense of rhythm.  But other teams have injuries and cope.  Losing Santi Carzola and Francis Coquelin and Alexis Sanchez is bound to have an effect, but Wenger likely thought he could play Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, and Alex Oxlaide Chamberlin in their stead and survive.  Little could he imagine all six being injured, and Mathieu Flamini being counted on week in and week out December through February.

So, clearly I must be blaming the manager. If Wenger has simply bought reinforcements in the summer, none of this would have come to pass.  But look at it from Wenger’s point of view in June 2015.

Arsenal had just won another FA Cup, and had finished the second half of the Premier League campaign strongly.  He analyzed every position and thought he saw depth and quality.

First team strikers: Giroud, Walcott*, Welbeck
First team attacking midfield:  Ozil, Sanchez, Ramsey*, Rosicky, Chamberlin, Campbell, Iwobi, Walcott*
First team deep midfield: Carzola, Coquelin, Wilshere. Ramsey*, Arteta, Flamini
First team defenders:  Monreal, Gibbs, Mertesacker, Gabriele, Koscieleny, Chambers, Bellerin, Debuchy
First team goal:  Cech, Ospina

* – player has more than one role

Arsene Wenger looked at this team and likely thought he was stocked in the midfield, had a good mix of experience and youth in the back four, and probably needed a clinical finisher to complete the team.  If transfer noise can be believed, he tried to get Karim Benzema from Real Madrid.  It did not work out.

So Arsenal went into 2015 – 16 with only one major signing.  And boom – injuries.  Long term injuries to Danny Welbeck and Jack Wilshere at the onset of the season.  Mid season injuries to Aaron Ramsey, Santi Carzola, Alex Oxlade Chamberlin, Francis Coquelin, and Alexis Sanchez.  Even with all of that – the team was on top of the table Christmas Day.  Wenger was trying combination of players after combination of players, trying to coax the team into form.  In the Man United game (at the Emirates) he attacked with restless abandon.  In the Man City game (also at the Emirates) he sat back and counter attacked.  The manager has changed his team and his tactics all season long to now avail.  It is simply not all down to the manager.

So what then?  What is the reason that this team looks nothing like it has in the recent past?  Why is this the worst it has ever been under Wenger?

The non trivial, non simple answer is a combination of inactivity in the summer transfer market, bad luck on the injury front to the most critical of players (Santi Carzola), lack of self confidence from a team on a run of indifferent to bad form, and special circumstances.
YES – lastly, there are special circumstances this season that have simply not existed in Arsene’ Wenger’s twenty years at Arsenal.  The Premier League order has been utterly disrupted.  Leicester City has had the audacity to go toe to toe with the big boys, and has led the league for the majority of 2016.  Chelsea, who just last May hoisted the trophy, completely fell apart and fired their manager.  Man City have been terribly inconsistent, and Man United are in the middle of a youth movement.

The small clubs simply do not fear the big clubs.  They do not come into a place like the Emirates and expect to lose.  The expect to play well, and quite possibly win.  This is the ultimate Leicester effect.  I imagine every manager of every “small” club pointing to Leicester and Claudio Ranieri, and saying “If they can do it, so can we”.

And they have.

Up next, West Brom.  Another team that will set up deep and hope they can be within touching distance in the last 20 minutes.  And who knows….it just might work.

But never give up hope Gooners.  If Arsenal win the next two, and Tottenham lose this weekend, guess who’s only two points from Sp*rs?

Arsenal desperately seeking goals

Good Morning to all.

Arsenal travel to Old Trafford this Sunday for the annual away match versus Manchester United. Arsenal is coming off a goalless FA Cup Draw versus Hull City and a devastating 2-nil loss to Barcelona. United defeated Shrewsbury Town in the FA Cup and FC Midtjylla in the Europa League by a combined score of 8-1.  By and large, most of the football pundits I have read this week have predicted an Arsenal victory.  To which I say, are you mad?

For whatever reason(s), Arsenal cannot find the back of the net.  It certainly isn’t due to a lack of effort, or because Arsenal can’t unlock defenses and create chances.  As mentioned early on this blog – Arsenal are creating chances.

The conversion of those chances is missing, and that is why Arsenal find themselves in 3rd place in the Premier League, Replaying Hull in the FA Cup, and down 2-0 aggregate, before even setting foot in Spain for their Champions League tie.

So, if Arsenal are to win on Sunday, they must convert chances into goals.  They must play loose and confident.  Arsene Wenger must see to this or the season will be back on the ropes.

Predicted Arsenal Line Up:

Cech
Bellerin, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Monreal (I know there is talk about Gabriel being available, but I don’t think the manager will risk him).

Ramsey, Coquelin – Would love to try ElNeny here and push Ramsey up to the right. Doubt it will happen.

Walcott, Ozil, Alexis –  If Ramsey were to move right, I would think Theo moves to center forward.

Giroud – And lastly if Theo takes the center forward spot, I do not expect to see Giroud till the 68th minute.  But my guess is he starts.

Bring on the goals boys.  Or Arsenal fandom is going to be one unpleasant bunch on Monday morning.

#COYG

How Arsenal can still qualify

Good morning all.

I think this piece by Gabriele Marcotti from EPSNFC is well worth a look.  It gets right to the very heart of the nagging issue with Arsenal:  Is Arsene Wenger simply an investment manager who judiciously and consistently produces a good return for majority shareholder Stan Kroenke?  Or is he expected to win titles?  If the answer is the former, he is doing an exceptional job.  If the answer is that later….not so much.

Shifting gears to the remaining Champions League group fixtures, Arsenal have this slate of matches remaining.

Home versus Bayern
Away versus Bayern
Home versus Zagreb
Away versus Zagreb

The boss himself thinks it is possible for Arsenal to still qualify, but what exactly will that require from the remaining fixtures?

Simply put, they must win at home against Bayern.

A win at Bayern should be easy picking for a team that does not like to defend, right?

Well, probably not, but let’s continue this qualification discussion anyway.

Let us begin by setting aside both Arsenal / Bayern matches.  We will return to those later.

Right now, Bayern has 6 points, while every other team in the group but Arsenal have three points.  Looking ahead to match day five, Zagreb at home.  You can say Arsenal should be expected to win this game, but they were expected to win the first two match days as well.  Nothing is guaranteed, but for sake of argument, let’s say Arsenal start to play as they are expected to play.  A win against Zagreb gives them three points.

Match day six is away at Olympiakos.  A much stiffer challenge indeed.  Much will be said / written about how English teams don’t play well in Greece, and how Arsenal don’t travel well.  Indeed, Arsenal have never won away at Olympiakos.  But, much was said / written about how tough it would be to go to Monaco last season and score any goals, let alone three.  Arsenal managed a 2 – 0 victory which ultimately saw them out of the tournament, but they did exceed expectations.  For sake of this discussion, let’s say they emerge 1-o victors from the match day six contest in Greece.

Arsenal can collect 6 points from those two games.  Let’s further assume that Olympiakos and Zagreb, who play each other in match days three and four, will split victories, each winning at home, while each lose away.  Zagreb and Olympiakos will also have 6 points then, as I have assumed that Bayern will beat both of these teams in their contests on match days 5 and 6.

Bringing us to Bayern and match days three and four.

If Arsenal win at home against Bayern, and lose away,  they would finish with 9 points and be clear of Zagreb and Olympiakos.  If Arsenal lose both of these matches, they will be involved in a three way tie on points, and qualification will come down to goal difference (or possibly – away goals).

While I suppose one could argue that Bayern will score a lot of goals against Zagreb and Olympiakos (as they have already), and maybe goal difference would be just the ticket to qualify, I would very much prefer to not go that route.

Yes, winning against Bayern will be a challenge even at home.  This is the most difficult task Arsenal have faced in Group Stage qualification, and it is by no means easy.

But a win against Bayern could prove to be the catalyst that gives Arsenal the confidence that they can win in Europe.  That they can challenge.  And perhaps they will.  They could also do something incredibly Arsenally, like put themselves in a good position via a win against Bayern and then blow it against Zagreb or Olympiakos.  But. let’s hope not.

Tomorrow – this space will focus on the upcoming match against Man Utd.  It seems the boss has recognized the vital importance of this fixture.  Let’s hope the message sinks in.

Until then.  #COYG